Poland's Commercial Real Estate Market: A Look Back at 2025 and Ahead to 2026

 

After four challenging years and a slowdown in 2023, Poland's commercial real estate market saw a return to stabilization in 2024, a trend that largely continued through 2025. Despite total transaction volume in 2025 remaining slightly below 2024 levels, mainly due to limited institutional capital, the market's liquidity remained stable with 151 transactions, comparable to the previous year's 154. The total investment volume reached 4.5 billion euro, with over 40% finalized in Q4. Notably, Polish capital significantly increased its presence, accounting for 18% of the total transaction volume in 2025, up from 9% in 2024. Several significant transactions initiated in 2025 are also slated for finalization in early 2026, setting a dynamic tone for the year ahead.

 

Office Space: The Leader of 2025 with Domestic Appeal

 

The office sector emerged as the leader in 2025, capturing a 39% share of the total market volume, predominantly driven by transactions in Warsaw. This indicates a robust demand and healthy investment climate for office properties, particularly in the capital. While investors in 2023 showed interest in 'value-add' older office buildings, 2024 and 2025 saw increased activity in 'core' and 'core+' assets, especially in Warsaw. This shift reflects a convergence of asking prices with transaction values and current market conditions. However, older properties with potential for repurposing, refurbishment, or owner-occupier use continue to attract strong interest, often from domestic investors.

Significant office transactions exceeding 100 million euro in 2025 included Mennica Polska acquiring a 50% stake in Mennica Legacy Tower, the sale of Wola Center to Trigea Real Estate Fund, and the buyback of a 49% stake in the CPI portfolio. Other notable assets that changed hands include Senator, Vibe, and Wronia 31 in Warsaw, as well as High Five I & II in Krakow and Centrum Południe 3 in Wrocław. This high level of activity is expected to continue into 2026, spanning both older assets and prime office buildings, presenting a wide array of options for businesses seeking rental spaces.

Polish capital played a substantial role in the office sector, representing 30% of the sector's volume and half of its transactions, demonstrating a growing interest in smaller formats and 'value-add' opportunities.

 

Warehouse and Logistics Space: Stable, Resilient, and Poised for Growth

 

The warehouse sector, which proved its dominance in the challenging conditions of 2023, maintained its stability and resilience throughout 2024 and 2025. Last year saw continued demand for 'sale and leaseback' transactions and growing investor interest in smaller industrial centers, which accounted for nearly 40% of the sector's total investment volume in 2025.

In 2025, the warehouse sector recorded an investment volume of approximately 1.5 billion euro, a 10% increase year-over-year. Market activity featured a limited number of large-scale transactions, with only two exceeding 100 million euro. The most significant was a groundbreaking 'sale and leaseback' transaction involving two properties of Polish manufacturer Eko-Okna, sold to Realty Income, marking the largest such transaction in the history of the entire Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. With numerous transactions currently underway, the Polish warehouse investment market is on track for potentially record-breaking results in 2026. Narrowing price gaps between sellers and buyers, coupled with an anticipated influx of foreign capital and a re-evaluation of older warehouse properties, are expected to further invigorate the market. For businesses, this translates into a dynamic and competitive market with potential for both new and existing spaces.

 

What to Expect in 2026: Opportunities Abound

 

Poland remains an attractive destination for investors, underpinned by solid economic growth and strong market fundamentals. The anticipated interest rate cuts in EUR and PLN, alongside potential geopolitical easing, are expected to stimulate foreign capital inflow, which will likely fuel further development and increase the supply of quality commercial spaces. We foresee continued growth in investment activity, with a focus on small and medium-sized assets, which could offer diverse options for businesses of varying scales.

Polish investors are projected to remain significant players in 2026, possessing both resources and investment capabilities across all market sectors, particularly in assets offering higher returns or significant value growth potential. Additionally, increased activity is expected from investors across Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Baltic states) and Western Europe (France, Belgium). The start of 2026 promises to be dynamic, with many transactions initiated in 2025 due for early finalization. High activity in the office sector is expected to persist for both older buildings and prime assets, while in retail, shopping parks and smaller convenience centers will likely remain growth drivers. The warehouse sector, historically a strong performer, is poised for even better results in 2026, offering abundant opportunities for businesses seeking logistical and operational hubs.

 

Source: prestigepr.pl