Poland's Warehouse Market Enters a Phase of Mature Equilibrium
The Polish industrial and logistics sector is experiencing a significant shift, transitioning into a phase of mature equilibrium. According to Axi Immo analysts, 2025 is set to be a year of stabilization, characterized by sustained tenant activity, controlled supply, and steady market indicators like vacancy rates and rents.
Robust Demand Signals Strategic Tenant Behavior
Despite a cautious outlook on new supply, tenant activity remains high. Total gross demand for modern warehouse space in Poland is projected to exceed 6 million sqm in 2025, marking the third-highest result in market history. Notably, net demand, encompassing new agreements and expansions, is expected to reach approximately 3 million sqm. A key trend is the increasing share of lease extensions, now accounting for about half of all transactions. Businesses are prioritizing stability and operational efficiency, often opting to remain in well-established and optimized logistical locations.
Cautious Supply Meets Stable Demand
Developers are exercising greater caution, with new supply in 2025 estimated at around 1.8 million sqm – a significant decrease and the lowest figure since 2016. New projects are predominantly built on a pre-let basis or as Built-to-Suit (BTS) facilities, with speculative investments remaining limited. This measured approach, combined with stable demand, is expected to keep the national vacancy rate around 8%. While established markets see diminishing availability, higher vacancy levels are mainly found in regions with previous speculative developments.
Rent Stability and Evolving Incentives
After dynamic increases between 2021 and 2023, the market has achieved rental equilibrium. Base rents for big-box warehouses are projected to remain stable throughout 2025, ranging from approximately 3.6 to 6.0 euro/sqm per month, depending on location and facility standard. Financial incentives are now more selective, often tied to the lease term and scale of the tenancy, reflecting a more balanced negotiation environment.
Long-Term Trends Shaping Your Logistics Future
Beyond 2025, several long-term trends continue to reshape the Polish warehouse sector. These include the growing importance of re-negotiations, the continued expansion of e-commerce, and a heightened focus on ESG solutions and building energy efficiency. Tenants are increasingly seeking properties equipped with advanced technical infrastructure that helps reduce operational costs and their carbon footprint.
Looking Ahead: Continued Growth in 2026
Experts anticipate a continuation of stable yet dynamic development in Poland's logistics and industrial sector into 2026. This positive outlook is supported by robust economic growth, ongoing e-commerce expansion, and planned investments in transport infrastructure, further solidifying Poland's position as a key logistics hub.
Source: eurobuildcee.com
